国民经济用电单耗变化解析

Analysis on the variation of electricity intensity in China

利用结构分解模型对全国GDP用电单耗、工业用电单耗的变化进行研究,分析影响GDP用电单耗变化的主要原因,并对其影响程度进行定量计算。结果表明,产业用电单耗的变化是引起GDP用电单耗变化的主要原因,其中第二产业用电单耗的变化是引起GDP用电单耗变化的决定性因素。"十五"期间,三次产业用电单耗的变化引起GDP用电单耗上升的贡献份额为77.3%,产业结构变化的贡献份额为22.1%;工业内部14个行业用电单耗的变化对工业用电单耗上升的贡献份额为71%,而工业内部结构变化的贡献份额为29%。

The variation of electricity intensity （EI） was studied by using Structure Decomposition Model （SDM） in China＇s economy and industrial sector. The main factors that influence EI were analyzed and the contribution of each factor to EI was calculated quantitatively. The results show that the intensities of three sectors play an important role in the variation of EI and the industrial intensity is the determinant factor. From 2000-2005, the contribution of the variation of three sectors＇ intensities to EI is 77.3%, while that of economic structure is 22.1%; the contribution of variation of 14 sub-sectors＇ intensities to industrial intensity is 71%, while that of the structure change among sub-sectors is 29%.