基于常规电力的核电发展经济性研究

Economic research of nuclear power deployment based on conventional power

核电作为能源的一种形式,在资源相对有限的条件下,其经济性评价不能仅衡量核电项目本身,以电力市场的大环境评价核电的经济性有着现实的必要性。在现行市场条件下,通过百万级核电机组与煤电机组贴现净利润和现金流的比较,核电40a经济运行期的整体效益存在一定的经济优势,而煤电的短期盈利能力比较强。良好的现金流和成本控制能力是判断企业持续经营的前提,基于核电的长期效益和煤电的短期盈利能力,常规电力集团参与核电发展是解决核电短期现金流和常规电力长期成本控制的有效途径,核电与常规电力作为投资组合运营可以化解资源约束,低风险实现核电产业规模化。

Nuclear power is one of energies, which economics cannot be merely measured through the nuclear power project itself under the limited resource. It is necessary to situate the nuclear power on the whole power market to evaluate its economics. Under current market conditions, comparing the discount net profit and cash flow between 1000 MW nuclear power plant and conventional power plant, the advantage of nuclear power is its stability of future profit, while the conventional power has the strength of cash flow in the short term. The better cash flow and the capability of cost control are the preconditions to determine whether it operates sustainably. By balancing the strengths of the nuclear power in the long term and the conventional power in the short term, it is an effective way for conventional power groups engaging in the nuclear power deployment to avoid the cash flow shortage and enhance cost control. Investment portfolio between nuclear and conventional power can overpass the resource confinement and construct the economics of scale for the nuclear power industry.