中美经济周期波动特征比较研究

A Comparative Study of the Business Cycles Of China and the United States

本文参照基德兰德(Kydland)、普雷斯科特(Prescott)的研究方法,通过比较中美经济周期波动的特征和周期性,发现中美经济波动尤其是名义变量的波动存在比较明显的差异。从理论上讲,这种差异的存在表明要建立适合我国的经济模型,必须立足于我国的经济特征事实,并有限地参考他国尤其是美国的经济特征事实;从现实层面来看,我国应该大力完善金融货币制度,减少名义变量对实际经济的影响,以实现经济的稳定增长。

Based on the Kydland and Prescott method, this paper makes a comparative study of the fluctuation and periodical characteristics of the business cycles of China and the United States. It shows that the fluctuation, especially the fluctuation of nominal variables, of the two countries are obviously different. In theory, these differences demonstrate that in order to build an economic model suited to Chine, it must be based on China＇s own economic characteristics instead of those of other countries＇. In reality, China should improve its financial system and reduce the effect of nominal variables on real economy in order to assure the steady growth of its economy.