瓯江(温州段)水质变化趋势分析及预测

Analysis and Prediction of the Change Trend of Water Quality of Oujiang River at Wenzhou

通过对瓯江杨府山断面近几年的水质监测数据进行分析,建立了三角函数预测模型,得到各年中瓯江水质各指标随季节交替的变化规律,并运用季节性肯达尔(Kendall)检验法对模型进行了验证.该模型克服了回归分析预测法只能在宏观上预测水质变化趋势的缺点,为水质变化趋势的分析及预测提供了新的思路.

Through the analysis of the materials of monitoring water quality at the cross section of Oujiang River at Yangfushan, we set trigonometric function models for prediction and obtain the seasonal law of the change trend of water quality. In this paper, seasonal Kendall parameter check model is used to validate the trigonometric function models. The method overcomes regression model and it supplies a new idea for analyzing and predicting the change trend of water quality .