基于岩石声发射实验结果探讨地震活动状态变化的预测意义

Study on prediction meaning of state variation of seismicity based on AE result

根据室内岩石破裂实验声发射结果,论证了地震非均匀度参数(GL值)在识别声发射活动状态变化的有效性,同时也考察了状态变化参量计算结果的稳定性。在此基础上,借用前苏联地震学家Mjachkin等提出的地震孕育至发生的雪崩不稳定裂隙形成模式,探讨了部分强地震孕育过程中,区域地震活动由无序到有序状态变化的可能形成机理。利用地震状态参数,即地震非均匀度(GL值)尝试开展了对我国未来一个时期地震大形势的定量分析预测。

In this paper, we demonstrate the efficiency of seismic inhomogeneous degree （GL value） during the process of distinguishing anomalous variation of the regionally seismic state based on the acoustic emission （AE） result. At the same time we also check the stability of the results calculated by using the method of seismic state variation. The possible mechanism of the state variation of seismicity from normal state to anomalous one during the seismogenic process of strong earthquakes is investigated using the IPE model put forward by Mjachkin et al. By means of the method of state variation calculation, or the seismic inhomogeneous degree （GL value）, the mainland of China is estimated the possible tendency of strong earthquakes in