人民币升值条件下我国宏观经济内外均衡的控制

Control on the External and Internal Equilibrium of Chinese Macro Economy under the Condition of RMB Appreciation

1994年外汇体制改革以后,人民币对美元的汇率基本保持稳定,2005年7月21日我国改革了人民币汇率的形成机制,汇率的弹性增强了,人民币存在升值趋势。随着人民币升值预期上升和外汇储备不断增加,宏观经济目标之间存在矛盾和冲突。为了维持汇率稳定和控制货币供应量,中央银行必须采取冲销干预的措施来实现,同时为了防止投机资本的套利,央行又必须进行利率控制,但是这些政策都有一定的局限性。目前在人民币升值预期的情况下,中央银行必须采取多种政策搭配手段来实现宏观经济的内外均衡。

The RMB exchange rate against US Dollar basically kept stable after the foreign exchange system reform in 1994. On July 21, 2005, China reformed the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and greater flexibility was endowed with RMB exchange rate, RMB has an appreciation trend. With RMB appreciation and the increase of foreign exchange reserves, there exist the conflicts among macro economy targets. In order to keep the exchange rate stable and control money supply, the central bank must take the measures of sterilized interventions, and at the same time must control the interest rate to prevent the arbitrage of speculation capital, but both two methods have their limits. At present under the condition of RMB appreciation, the central bank must take multi-policies combinations to realize the external and internal equilibrium of macro economy.