道路交通事故死亡人数预测模型

Prediction model of death toll resulted from road traffic accidents

为了对中国未来的交通安全形势做出科学预测,分析了中国道路交通安全状况的评价指标和主要影响因素,建立了以机动车保有量、人口、公路里程、客货运输周转量和国家控制力度为参数的道路交通事故死亡人数预测模型,并对1991～2004年各年的死亡人数进行了计算和未来年份死亡人数进行了预测。预测结果表明:预测模型精度高,平均预测误差为3.9%;得出2010年和2020年中国道路交通事故死亡人数的预测值分别为14万人和17万人,死亡人数由上升转为下降的转折点出现时间约在2010年到2015年之间。

In order to scientifically predict the future traffic safety situation in China,a prediction model of traffic accident death toll was built based on the analysis of evaluation indices and main influence factors of Chinese road traffic safety situation,which several factors were taken as parameters,including motor vehicle amount,population,highway mileage,passengers and goods transport volume,and government policy.According to the model,the annual death toll from 1991 to 2004 was calculated,and the future death toll was predicted.Prediction result shows that the precision of the model is higher,the average predicting error is 3.9%;the predicting values of accident death toll in 2010 and 2020 are 14 ten thousand people and 17 ten thousand people respectively;the turning time is during 2010 to 2015 when the death toll changes from rising to descending.4 tabs,17 refs.