关联货运市场中客户决策行为与货流再分配

Client's decision-making behavior and redistribution of freight flow in affiliated market

根据古典决策理论关于货主是理性人的假设,建立了货物的广义流通成本模型、广义采购成本模型、不同运输方式的关联度系数模型及广义采购成本对运价和运输速度的敏感度模型,分析了关联货运市场中客户决策行为与货流再分配的特点及其影响因素。发现不同运输方式运送同一货物会产生不同的广义流通成本,货主根据广义流通成本选择运输方式,关联度系数接近1时,关联市场竞争越激烈,广义采购总成本对运输价格和运输时间的弹性系数分别等于运费和货物在途成本占广义采购总成本的比例,货物时间价值相对稳定,因此,决定货主的运输方式选择和货流分配的力量来自货物本身和运输技术。

According to the hypothesis that client is rational decision-maker in classic decision theory,the generalized circulating cost model and generalized purchasing cost model of freight,the affiliated degree model among different transportation modes and the sensitive model of generalized purchasing cost relative to transportation price and transportation time were build,and the properties and influence factors of client＇s decision-making behavior and the redistribution of freight flow were analyzed in affiliated freight market.It is pointed that different modes might produce different generalized circulating transport costs aimed at the same amount freight,client chooses transport model according to generalized circulating cost;when the affiliated degree between two kinds of transportation modes is close to 1,competition increasingly becomes fierce in affiliated freight market;the elasticity coefficients of generalized purchasing cost relative to transportation price and transportation time respectively equal to the ratios of the transport fee and on-way time cost of freight to generalized purchasing cost,the time cost of goods relatively remains stable,so the decision-making behavior of client and the distribution of freight flow are decided by goods attribute and transport technique.1 fig,11 refs.