城市空间规模拓展灰色系统动力分析

Gray Systematic Analysis of Driving Force of the Spatial Expansion

针对福州城市空间规模扩张特征,运用灰色系统分析法对影响城市空间规模变化的驱动因素进行了分析,通过灰色预测模型GM(1,n)预测了福州2017年合理的城市规模。分析发现,社会系统需求、经济压力、工业刺激是影响城市空间规模变化的主要驱动力。同时,文章对解决目前福州城市空间规模过小且拓展过慢,提出了相应对策。

This study analyzes the characteristics of city spatial expansion in Fuzhou and discusses the drive factors,which influence the city spatial size change by using the gray systematic analytic method.The results obtained from the studies show that social systematic requirements,economic development,industrial stimulation are main driving forces.The authors predict the city spatial size of 2017 in Fuzhou by using gray systematic predicting model GM(1,n).The reasonable spatial size of Fuzhou is analyzed from two different aspects and the result obtained is that Fuzhou is too small and has a slow expanding speed,and relevant countermeasures are proposed.