摘要
本文采用时间序列模型进行物流需求预测,用实例从数据平稳性的判断,平稳化,标准化,建模,经模型的识别、定阶、参数估计和检验,到预测及误差和置信区间的计算,详细地说明了时间序列模型在物流需求预测中是如何应用的。结果表明该ARMA模型能够较好地拟合并可获得较高的中短期预测精度。
We carry on logistics demand forecast by taking time-series model and explain its application
to logistics demand forecast by justment of data stationary,stead,standardization,modeling,
discernment,making steps.parameter estimate and examination to predict,error and calculation
of confidential interval.The reason shows that the ARMA model can fit and get better prediction accuracy in the medium and short-time term.
出处
《物流科技》
2007年第9期96-99,共4页
Logistics Sci-Tech
关键词
物流
物流需求预测
时间序列模型
logistics
logistics requirement forecasting
time-series model
