航天器对于接近碎片轨迹的高精度预报方法

High-Precision Track Prediction for Approaching Debris

航天器可以通过地面提前预报的方法获悉有威胁的空间碎片运行情况，并且通过事先机动的方法加以规避，但对于事先没有提前预警的“意外”接近必须采取应急措施进行规避，其前提条件是能够对这些碎片进行快速、精确的轨迹预报，选择适当的相对运动方程并进行参数辩识是其中关键步骤。本文对接近碎片轨迹的高精度描述模型进行了研究，在接近时刻前后使用相对运动方程加修正的方法得到了令人满意的结果，为航天器后继的参数辩识和进行有效的自主规避行为提供了基础支撑。

A spacecraft can forecast the threats of space debris with the help of surveillance systems on the ground. The collision between the spacecraft and the debris can be avoided by means of orbit maneuvers. However, for ＂accidentally＂approaching space debris, spacecraft must adopt an emergency scheme to elude the debris, A prerequisite for this is fleet and accurate prediction of the trajectory of the debris and a key step is to find appropriate equations to describe the parameters of the approaching process. This paper is based on research on models for high-accuracy description of the trajectory of space debris. Satisfactory results are got in periods before and after approaching of space debris. The results provide fundamental support for parameter determination and effective autonomous collision-avoidance for spacecraft.