基于模糊模拟的风险投资项目决策

Decision-making in Venture Capital Investment Based on Fuzzy Simulation

由于风险投资的高不确定性和风险性,使得人们难以准确预测风险投资项目的收益和状态概率,而只能得到其大致的区间范围。鉴于这种情况,本文将投资项目收益和状态概率描述为模糊变量,利用模糊变量的均值和方差建立了模糊风险投资决策模型,并给出利用模糊模拟方法计算的实例。

As a result of the high uncertainty and the risk of venture capital investment, it is difficult to predict accurately the income and state probability in venture capital project, so its approximate interval range can only be obtained. In view of this kind of situation, the income and state probability in venture capital project are described with fuzzy variable. Then a fuzzy venture capital decision-making model is set up based on the average value and the variance of fuzzy variable, and the corre- sponding computation example using the fuzzy simulation method is provided.