一个海气耦合模式对东亚夏季气候预测潜力的评估

Evaluation on Potential Predictability of Summer Climate over East Asia by an Air-Sea Coupled Model

利用一个具有较高分辨率的海气耦合模式SINTEX-F(Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier Re-search Center for Global Change coupled GCM)的多年回报结果,评估了该海气耦合模式对东亚区域,尤其是中国地区气候异常的预测潜力。与观测实况的比较结果表明:SINTEX-F模式对夏季降水、500 hPa高度场和地表气温都有一定的预测技巧,但是相比而言降水与高度场的回报技巧要高于地表气温;而且耦合模式对东亚地区气候异常的主要空间分布和年际变化特征也有较好的预测潜力,对500 hPa高度场效果较好;对降水异常的年际变化也有一定的预测潜力,尤其是我国中部地区效果较好,但是模式预测的降水异常的幅值较观测相对偏弱;此外对我国西部的极端气候也有一定的预测潜力。

By using secular ensemble hindcast results of a high resolution air-sea coupled model SINTEX-F （Scale Interaction Experiment-frontier Research Center for Global Change coupled GCM）, the potential predictability of the coupled model on climate anomaly of East Asia （EA）, especially of China is evaluated. Results show that the SIN- TEX-F has some skill in predicting summer rainfall, geopotential height at 500 hPa and surface air temperature, but the skill of surface air temperature is relative lower. The comparison between observation and hindcast shows that the coupled model can reproduce well the most spatial features of EA abnormal climate and its evolution, especially for geopotential height at 500 hPa. The model has relative high potential predictability on annual variation of summer rainfall anomaly in the middle of China, but the magnitude of the hindcast result is relative weak; there also has some potential predictability on extreme climate over the west of China.