二元经济结构、实际汇率错位及其对进出口贸易影响的实证分析

An Empirical Study of the Impact pf Dual Economic Structure,Real Exchange Rate Misalignment on the Import and Export

本文对我国二元经济结构、人民币实际汇率错位对进出口贸易的影响进行了实证分析。文中引入非农就业人口比重作为二元经济结构的代理变量,发现其是形成我国巨额贸易顺差的根源。实际汇率低估幅度越大,净出口的概率越大,越易形成贸易顺差。进、出口对二元经济结构、实际汇率错位等变量具有自我修正的动态调整功能。因此,当前解决我国巨额贸易顺差问题最有效的办法是改善我国二元经济结构,而不应该仅仅采取人民币升值的方法。

This paper analyzes the impact of dual economic structure and RMB real exchange rate misalignment on the import and export of China. Non-agriculture population proportion is introduced into the model as an agent variant, which shows that dual economic structure is the root of tremendous trade surplus of China. The larger under-estimated misalignment is, the bigger net export probability is, which forms trade surplus. Export and import have a self-corrected dynamic mechanism. Therefore, the efficient method to solve China＇s trade surplus problem currently is to improve the dual economic structure, not only to make RMB appreciation.