制度变迁、不确定性、收入增长与居民储蓄率——基于宁波案例的因子分析

Institutional Change,Uncertainty,Income Growth ad Private Savings Rate:A Case Study of Ningbo City

本文在前人研究的基础上,从居民储蓄率的定义出发,以宁波市400户家庭家计调查数据为样本。得到:改革开放以来居民储蓄率总体上大幅上升,但低收入家庭储蓄率较低且长期内并无明显上升。统计分解表明:高收人家庭收入的快速增长与储蓄率的大幅提高是居民总储蓄率上升的主要推动力,而因子分析则得到影响居民储蓄率上升的主要因素包括制度因素、不确定因素与收入增长因素。最后,本文提出了防止居民储蓄率进一步较快上升的政策建议。

This paper examines the private savings rate by using the panel data of 400 households from Ningbo city and finds that the overall private savings rate has significantly increased since the late 1970s while the lowincome group saves less and their savings rate has been stable over time. The factor analysis shows that the high-income households have driven the overall private saving rate growth. Institution change, uncertainty and income growth are the main factors to effect the private savings rate rising. The paper finally provides policy recommendations to detain the further increase of private saving rate finally.