中国农业贷款效率——基于双方程误差修正模型

The Efficiency of Agriculture Credit in China:Based on the Double-equation Vector Error Correction

关于信贷在中国农业经济增长中的作用,理论界一直存在争议。本文通过双方程误差修正模型,测算了信贷对中国农业经济增长的影响力,定量分析了两者的互动过程。计量结论显示在长期信贷能够促进农业经济增长,但自1979年以来中国农业经济增长始终不能内生吸引信贷资金。中央银行可以通过窗口指导意见促进信贷支农,但农业经济增长的长效机制在于发展高效农业,并以此为基础实现与银行业的良性互动。

This paper introduces double equation Vector Error Correction to test the influence of credit to agriculture economics growth and quantitatively analyzes the interaction process between them. The conclusion is that long-term credit prompts the agriculture economics growth, however, agricultural growth cannot attract more credit loans since 1979. The central bank can prompt farmer loan by window instruction, but the key for agricultural growth depends upon a highly effective agriculture and benign interaction mechanism with banking industry.