基于可信性理论的标准-3拦截弹末段修正能力分析

Creditability Theory-based Analysis for Terminal Divert Ability of Standard Missile-3

基于可信性理论对标准-3拦截弹末段修正能力进行分析。由拦截末段相对运动动力学推导了标准-3拦截弹末段可消除的最大零控脱靶量解析表达式;针对其中的参数不确定性,将不确定参数视为模糊变量运用可信性理论进行建模,采用模糊模拟算法得到标准-3末段可消除的最大零控脱靶量的可能性测度悲观值和乐观值,可信性测度均值和标准差及可能性、必要性和可信性分布函数。本文研究为弹道导弹中段机动突防动力系统设计提供了理论依据,同时为如何根据有限的已知信息获得合理的未知信息提供了有效途径。

The analysis of the terminal divert ability of SM3 is put forward based on the creditability theory.The expression of the maximal zero effort miss which could be corrected by SM-3 during the terminal course was deduced based on relative motion dynamics.Creditability theory was used for modeling the fuzzy parameters in the expression,and fuzzy simulation was adopted to obtain the possibility measured pessimism value and optimism value,creditability measured mean value and normalized variance,and its distribution functions of possibility,necessity and creditability.The research could supply a theoretical support for the motor design of midcourse maneuvering penetration of a ballistic missile,and supply an effective way for get reasonable unknown information from limited known information.