松纵坑切梢小蠹预测预报研究

Study on the Forecasting Method for Tomicus piniperda

纵坑切梢小蠹预测预报研究，采用聚集信息素诱集法、有效虫口基数法、云南松物候观测法进行发生期及发生量中短期测报，准确率达到８５％以上，在此基础上建立了发生期及发生量的计算机测报模型。确定蠹害林分内平均受害梢率４．７％，平均受害株率５．１％，平均枯死率０．５％为蠹害林分的防治指标临界值，在此指标下，可以不进行防治；根据发生量测报方法及防治指标在小蠹发生区进行多点测报即可确定小蠹发生区。

Adopting attractants, the effective population cardinal number and the phenological observation on Pinus yunnanensis, the authors carried out the research on short-term forecasting method for Tomicus piniperda, and with the accuracy over 85%, moreover, based on this research, an computer forecasting model has been founded. The cri-tical value for control is determined as average damaged top of tree index of 4.7%, average damaged trees rate of 5.1% and the average death rate of 0.5%. Based on the forecasting method for occurrence quantity and control index, the occurrence region, scope and area of Tomicus piniperda can be determined by multi-spot forecast.