云南松纵坑切梢小蠹成虫发生量预测预报研究

Study on Forecasting the Occurring Quantity of Adults of Tomicus piniperda

１９９２～１９９５年在玉溪市北城镇刺桐关办事处石狗头村，对云南松纵坑切梢小蠹进行了系统的调查及试验研究，得出小蠹成虫发生量的预测预报方法，即应用有效虫口基数法测报下一代小蠹成虫发生量，准确率达８５％以上。并初步建立了小蠹发生量的曲线回归测报模型：Ｙ＝０．１２９４０８８６４Ｘ０．９８７９１６５４２，相关因子为云南松受害株率，用于测报越冬代及下一代成虫发生量；多元回归测报模型：Ｙ＝－７９．０５２６＋０．４５０４Ｘ１＋５．３３６７Ｘ２＋０．１７１８Ｘ３±０．２５，相关因子是越冬虫口基数，４月上旬温度、雨量，用于测报下一代成虫发生量：二元回归测报模型：Ｙ＝－０．６２８２＋０．０４１５Ｘ１＋０．１１９２Ｘ２±１．５，相关因子是林木受害株率，用于测报越冬代及下一代小蠹成虫发生量。上述模型准确率均达８０％以上，具有较好的实用价值。

From 1992 to 1995, through systematic investigation and research on Tomicus Piniperda in Shigoutou Village, Citongguan office, Beicheng town of Yuxi, then the forecasting method for Tomicus piniperda were obtained, that is using the method of effective insect population cardinal number to forecast the adult occurrig quantity of the next generation Tomicus piniperda and the accuracy is 85%. Moreover 3 regression models for forecasting occurring quantity were founded. The first is curvilinear regression forecast model: Y=0.129408864 0.987916542 ,the correlation factor is the damaged rate of Pinus yunnanensis this model is used for forecasting the overwintering generation and the adult occurring quantity of the next generation. The second is multivariate regression forecast model: Y=-79.0526+0.4504X 1 +5.3367X 2 +0.1718X 3 ±0.25, the correlation factors are overwintering insect population cardinal number, temperature of the first ten-day period of April and rainfall, this model is used for forecasting the adult occurring quantity of the nest generation, the third is binary regression forecast model: Y=-0.6282+0.0415X 1 +0.1192X 2 ±1.5,the correlation factor is the damaged rate of Pinus yunnanensis this model is used for forecasting overwintering generation and the adult occurring quantity of the next generation. Accuracy of the 3 models are all over 80% and have better practical value. This study provided scientific basis for integrated control of Tomicus piniperda.