2007中国宏观经济走势与长三角模式未来

The Trend of 2007 Chinese Macro-economic and The Future of Changsanjiao Mode

中国经济在2007年将延续自2003年以来增长的势头。但与高速增长伴随而来的物质生产份额与价值实现份额的“大分流”现象并未消除。通过对我国单位GDP能耗和美国1949年的单位GDP能耗进行对比,可以看出这种“大分流”现象是由中国经济尤其是长三角区域的“车间经济”式的发展模式引致的。如果继续这种发展模式,中国经济的未来定位将会是以传统制造业群为主——走向蓝领经济,占据世界价值链的低端环节。如果要改变这种命运,必须转变发展模式,走向指数与信息经济时代。中国将在一个较短的时间内完成大国经济的崛起过程。

In 2007 Chinese economic growth will go on with the high speed of growth trend which comes from 2003. But following the high growth speed, the phenomenon of the great divergence between the shares of physical product and the shares of value realization still exists. Comparing the energy consumption per GDP between China and USA in 1949, we find the phenomenon of ＂the great divergence＂ is decided by the Chinese especially Changsanjiao region＇ economic growth mode of ＂plant economy＂. If keep this mode on, the future orientation of Chinese economy will be traditional manufacturing industry-tend towards blue collar economy, take up the low end of the world value chain. If change this trend, we must transform the development mode, move towards the era of index and information economy. China will finish the rising process of great-nation economy.