基于灰色理论的世界天然气需求预测

World Gas Demand Forecast Based on the Gray Theory

影响世界天然气需求的因素较多,比如天然气储量、产量、价格及其它因素等。运用回归模型等预测方法要求对各影响因素进行具体分析,这在实际预测中很难面面俱到。而运用灰色理论模型预测世界天然气需求量则可以将各种影响因素内部化,通过历史数据提取有价值的信息,实现对系统运行规律的正确认识,据此进行科学预测。文章通过建立灰色预测模型对2000～2005年世界天然气需求量进行了预测,并将预测结果与实际值比较,精确度为98.73%,这说明运用灰色模型进行天然气需求预测有较高的准确性和可行性。文章最后预测了2007～2020年世界天然气需求量,到2020年,世界天然气需求量将达49308×108m3。

The world gas demand is influenced by many factors,such as natural gas reserves,production,prices and so on.Regression model prediction method required specific analysis,which is very difficult to predict anything without any error.Gray theoretical models predict could affect various internal factors.Through the historical data,we can get valuable information and right understand for the system operating,which can be used for scientific forecasts.Through the establishment of gray prediction model,we predicted the world's natural gas demand from 2007 to 2020,and compared the results with the actual value.The accuracy reached to 98%,which mean the gray model has higher accuracy and feasibility.