基于CA与AO的区域土地利用变化模拟研究——以三峡库区为例

Simulating Regional Land Use Change Based on CA and AO

运用元胞自动机(Cellular Automata)与AO(ArcObject)相结合的方法,在VB环境下编程来进行三峡库区地类变化模拟研究。以1995年和2005年的土地利用图为基础数据,比较研究期各地类的变化数量与方向以确定地类转换之间的优先级,然后确定地类的转换概率。研究结果表明此方法便于理解与操作,同时模拟精度高;预测结果说理性强,其结果显示三峡库区城镇建设用地增加,耕地面积减少,水域的面积在增加。其预测结果可以指导库区的土地利用规划,为库区有效土地管理提供参考。

Regional land use change is an important part of global change. The research of land use change in the reservoir area of Three Gorges has attracted a lot of attention with construetion of Three Gorges dam. The reservoir area of Three Gorges has become one of the important research areas. Based on the Landsat TM datum in 1995 and 2005, simulated multi-land use types change in the reservoir area of Three Gorges was conducted with the support of RS and GIS. In the process of research, the theory of Cellular Automata and the model of Arc-Object were used, with programming in the VB environment to fulfill the simulation and the forecasting. Firstly, transform the land use map of coverage format into grid format, and the shatters were set 100＊100m. Secondly, sample on the land use change map using the RASTER CALCULATOR in GIS, and then judge the transfer situation in order to determine the transfer probability of different land use types in the scale of 3＊3 neighborhood. Thirdly, program in the VB environment and simulate repeatedly until the simulation result fits for the precision. Lastly, continue simulating and get the land use map in 2010 and 2015. The forecasting map indicates that the areas of urban land and rivers will increase and the area of cultivated land will decrease, which are reasonable and convincing because of the policy of returning cultivated land to forestry land and the rising of water level in the reservoir area.