煤炭需求量增长率预测的非线性动力学模型

BASED ON NON-LINEAR DYNAMIC THEORY A FORECASTING MODEL FOR INCREASING RATE OF COAL REQUIREMENT AMOUNT

从非线性动力学观点出发，以煤炭需求量增长率的时间序列为基础，研究了其所蕴含的动力学特征；求解了该系统的相空间特征及其吸引子，建立了煤炭需求量增长率预测的非线性动力学模型，并采用Kolmogorov嫡给出了模型的时间尺度．图1，表1，参3。

On the view point of non-linear dynamic theory, the dynamic features,such as the characteristics of phase space and its attractor of increasing rate of coal requirement amount have been researched firstly on the basis of time sequence data of coal requirement amount. Furthermore,the non-linear dynamic model has been built. At last, the definite prognostic time time scale is given by the analysis of Kolmogorov entropy. 1figs., 1tab., 3refs.