经济转型时期我国城镇居民消费与收入的长期均衡关系

Cointegration between Actual Consumption and Income of Chinese Urban Residents During Economic Reform

由于确定性时间趋势项代表了经济发展等的因素对消费的影响,故本文首次基于带有非参数时间趋势项的半参数模型对我国1978-2005年的消费收入进行了协整检验,实证结果表明:转轨时期我国城镇居民人均收入与消费之间存在着长期均衡关系;收入是消费的一个重要决定因素;同时趋势项的影响也并不是如很多文章描述的那样具有直线形式。

As the time trend function represent the impact of economic development on consumption, in the paper the semiparametric model with deterministic time trend function is firstly used to make empirical study for cointegration test between actual consume and income per capita of Chinese urban residents from 1978 to 2005, and the results show that there do exists cointegration between consume and income with income having important effects on consume, while the time trend form is not as what we usually suppose.