基于复杂网络的网络市场新产品扩散:采用网络和初始条件的作用

Diffusion of New Products in Network Markets Based on Complex Networks:The Role of Adoption Network and Initial Conditions

运用复杂网络方法研究网络效应新产品扩散中采用网络结构和初始条件对扩散模式的作用。所有潜在采用主体位于一个复杂网络上,每个主体综合自己对新产品的偏好和邻居的决策决定是采用新产品还是继续等待,所有主体的决策共同决定新产品扩散模式。结果表明,网络结构的作用依赖于主体决策机制:对于创新市场,网络异质性阻碍了新产品扩散;对于替代市场,网络结构对扩散模式没有影响。初始采用比例增大导致稳态扩散比例增加,但边际作用单调下降。研究结果对管理采用网络和开发有效的新产品扩散战略有重要意义。

The roles of adoption network and initial conditions playing in the diffusion pattern of new products with networks effects are studied by applying complex networks theory. All potential adopters locate in a complex networks. Each agent makes a decision of either adopting new product or waiting for later adoption that determined by their personal preferences and the decisions of their neighbors. The results show that the effects of network structure depend on the decision mechanisms： in original market, the heterogeneity of adoption network is an obstacle in the diffusion of new product; but in replacing market, diffusion patterns are irrelevant to adoption network. Furthermore, the stationary diffusion rate increases with initial adopter rate, but the marginal effects of increasing initial adopters decreases monotonously. The research results contribute to manage adoption network and develop effective new product diffusion strategies.