中国肺癌患者住院人次增长现况及其主要影响因素分析

An Analysis on Increasing Tendency of Inpatients with Lung Cancer in China and its Major Influencing Factors

[目的]分析我国肺癌住院人次增长趋势及其主要影响因素变化,为肺癌的预防控制提供科学依据。[方法]查阅《中国统计年鉴》和《中国卫生统计年鉴》中的有关数据,结合专家访谈结果,利用生产函数、曲线拟合等方法,对肺癌患病趋势和主要影响因素的变化进行生态学研究。[结果]我国肺癌住院人次数呈指数增长趋势。2001年后,环境污染对肺癌患者产生的危害大于烟草的危害。[结论]环境污染致肺癌的相对作用明显上升,渐为主导,烟草对于肺癌产生的滞后效应提示,控烟工作仍然任重道远。

[Purpose ] To investigate the increasing tendency of inpatients with lung cancer in China and its major influencing factors, and to provide scientific evidence for lung cancer prevention and control in China. [Methods ] The data from China Statistical Yearbook and China Health Statistical Yearbook combined with experts＇ opinions were analyzed. Lung cancer inpatients increasing tendency and its major influencing factors were Ecologic studied by Cobb-Douglas production function and curve fitting methods. [Results ] The number of inpatients with lung cancer showed an exponential increasing tendency. It can be found that the contribution from environment pollution factors to lung cancer had been more than that from smoking since 2001. [Conclusion] Environment pollution has been the serious risk factor of lung cancer in China. Further more, the hysteresis effect of tobacco consumption suggests that the smoking control is still a hard task in China.