马尔柯夫过程预测焉耆盆地土地利用/覆被格局变化

Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Patterns Using Markov Chain Model in Yanqi basin,Xinjiang

在遥感和MAPGIS的支持下,由焉耆盆地两个时期的遥感图像和地形图获得的土地利用/覆被类型数据,确定土地利用/覆被的初始状态矩阵和转移概率矩阵,据此用马尔柯夫链模型对焉耆盆地的土地利用/覆被格局的未来变化趋势进行了预测。X2检验表明,模拟结果与实际情况基木吻合,因此用该模型预测未来土地利用/覆被格局的变化是可靠的。结果表明:天然植被、盐碱地持续减少,而耕地面积、水域、以及城市居民点继续扩大,说明焉耆盆地土地利用/覆被格局正处在一种变化状态,这预示着未来时期焉耆盆地绿洲区人为干扰仍然是土地利用/覆被格局变化的主要方面。根据模拟结果可调整各类土地利用/覆被格局,可为干旱绿洲区土地利用规划宏观决策提供科学依据。

Based on the data of land use and land cover obtained from the TM and ETM images and topographic maps of the Yanqi Basinin 1990 and 2000,a primitive status matrix and a transition probability matrix of the land use and land cover were worked out with the aid of Mapgis software.Future tendency of the land use and land cover pattern was predicted by the Markov Chain Model.At first,the field data of 2000 was used to validate the model,showing that the model is efficient and suitable for prediction.The results of calculation using the Markov Chain Model indicated that the land use and land cover pattern was changing.The results showed that natural vegetation and alkaline land were decreased and the cultivated land,lakes and residential areas were increased.This implied that human activity is the main cause to change in the land cover pattern.According to the results of the simulation,the land use and land cover pattern can be adjusted,which may be served as a scientific basis for land planning and management of the recent Yanqi Basin.