北疆地区近41年来积温变化趋势特征研究

The Variation Tendency of Accumulated Temperaturein the Past 41 Years in the North Area of Xinjiang

本文选取新疆北疆地区19个气象站台的1961-2001年的气象资料,经过处理分析了北疆地区积温的变化趋势。本文选取了≥10oC活动积温∑T10及≥10oC持续日数D10来表示新疆北疆地区积温变化,并进行了分析。结果表明:近41年北疆的积温变化是明显的,日平均气温≥10℃界限温度初日普遍提前,积温显著增多,生长季明显延长。通过小波分析得出积温的变化周期为8年。还得出了积温与持续期的一元线性回归方程。通过研究,分析出积温变化对北疆地区的农业生态环境的利弊关系。

The meteorological data of 19 meteorology stations during 1961-2001 in north of Xinjiang were analyzed to process the change tendency of accumulative temperature of Northern Xinjiang.The accumulative temperature of ≥10 ℃（∑T10） and the duration days of ≥10 ℃（D10）indicated the varation of the accumulative temperature of Northern Xinjiang.The results indicated that： The change of accumulative temperature of Northern Xinjiang is obvious in the near 41 years.The first day with the daily temperature of ≥10 ℃ was ahead,the accumulative temperature increased remarkably,the growth season increased obviously.Through the wavelet analysis it was got that cycle of accumulative temperature is 8 years.Also the linear regression equation between acumulative temperature and duration was obtained.The advantages and disadvantages of the northern Xinjiang＇s agriculture ecological environment casued by the change of accumulative temperature were analyzed.