基于产业结构演进角度的内蒙古节能潜力分析

Energy Saving Potential of Inner Mongolia Based on Industrial Structure Evolution

在工业化和城市化快速发展的带动下,内蒙古一次能源消费不断攀升。对历史数据的分析表明,1952-2004年以来,一次能源消费总量变化经历了低增长、稳定增长和高增长三个阶段,相应地,单位GDP能耗变化经历了初始上升、稳步下降、反弹上升三个阶段。借助于结构演进-能源消费关联和结构演进-单位能耗关联两个基本模型,从产业结构演进角度分析了内蒙古一次能源消费总量和单位GDP能耗变化的原因所在。分析结果显示,产业结构演进和一次能源消费总量以及单位GDP能耗之间存在密切关系,其中在1952-2000年间,单位GDP能耗先升后降,产业结构演进的节能效果明显,一次能源消费总量增长逐步减缓。但是,在"十五"时期,内蒙古能源消费总量和单位GDP能耗双双出现反弹,使得产业结构演进所产生的节能效果弱化,原因主要在于能源工业等高耗能工业部门的高速发展。因此,适当控制高耗能工业部门的发展,尤其是能源工业部门的超常规发展,是内蒙古"十一五"时期通过产业结构节能降耗的最大潜力所在。

Primary total energy consumption of Inner Mongolia is increasing continually with the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization.The analysis of historical data indicated that from 1952 to 2004,total energy consumption experienced three phases：Low growth,stable growth and high growth.Accordingly,GDP energy intensity went through initial rise,stable decline and rebound phases.Using industrial structure evolution-energy consumption relating model and industrial structure evolution-GDP energy intensity relating model,the reason of total energy consumption and GDP energy intensity＇change were analyzed from the angle of industrial structure evolution.The result indicated that there was close relationship between industrial structure evolution and total energy consumption,and GDP energy intensity.From 1952 to 2000,industrial structure evolution created obvious energy saving effect,the increase of total energy consumption slowed down step by step,and GDP energy intensity rose and then fell.But during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period,energy saving effect of industrial structure evolution weakened because of the rebound of both total energy consumption and GDP energy intensity.The reason was that the industrial departments with high-energy consumption,such as energy department developed too quickly.So,the biggest energy saving potential during the Eleventh FiveYear Plan period is to control suitably the development of departments with high-energy consumption,especially of energy department.