黄河干流梯级水库补偿调节方案风险分析

Risk Analysis on Compensative Regulation of Cascade Reservoirs in the Main Stream of Yellow River

本文以黄河干流梯级水库补偿调节为例,系统分析了补偿调节方案的主要风险因素,提出了多因素组合风险估计的蒙特卡罗(Monte-Carlo)随机模拟技术,并根据风险指标对补偿调节方案的风险做出评价。结果表明,研究建立的补偿调节方案风险模型是合理可行的。

Taking the compensative regulation of cascade reservoirs in the main stream of Yellow River as the example,the main risk factors of compensative regulation were analyzed systematically.Monte-Carlo random simulation for evaluating the combined risk factors was introduced,and the risk was evaluated by risk index.The result indicated that the risk evaluation model for compensative regulation developed in the study was reasonable and feasible.