贵州省天然气市场分析

NATURAL GAS MARKET ANALYSIS IN GUIZHOU PROVINCE

贵州省基于解决能源需求缺口、环保和可持续发展的要求,迫切需要引进优质、清洁、高效的能源。为此,根据对贵州省现有能源市场的实地调查和结构分析,筛选出较为可靠的主要城市燃气项目和工业燃料项目作为目标市场,并预测其未来天然气需求量(如2010年6.15×108m3、2015年10.37×108m3、2020年14.14×108m3),具有一定的市场规模。同时在天然气价格与贵州省目标市场现有能源价格对比分析的基础上,分别测算出煤制气、工业燃油、电、LPG终端用户天然气等热值可承受价格在1.87～4.6元/m3之间,在城市天然气行业中,终端用户可承受天然气价格在2.1～3.78元/m3之间。其中当城市工业和居民天然气价格分别低于2.3元/m3和2.1元/m3时,天然气与煤制气相比具有竞争力。因此,利用天然气部分替代贵州省现有能源是可行的。

A kind of clean,high-efficient,and premium energy is in great urgent need for Guizhou Province to solve essential issues such as energy gap,environment threatening,and sustainable development of energy resources,etc.In light of structure analysis and field research on the present energy market in Guizhou Province,this study selected some reliable and implemented projects of city gas and industrial fuels in Chinese major cities as the target markets,and predicted their future demand for natural gas,i.e.,615 MCM in 2010,1037 MCM in 2015,1414 MCM in 2020,occupying for certain amount in the energy market.Comparing the prices between natural gas and the present energy in the target markets of Guizhou province,this study calculated the acceptable price is within 1.87-4.60 Yuan RMB per m3 of coal-produced gas,industrial fuel,electric power,and LPG final user.This study results show that if natural gas price is lower than 2.3 Yuan per m3 for urban industrial users and 2.1 Yuan per m3 for urban citizens,natural gas will have great competitive power compared with coal-produced gas,in the other word,there is large possibility for natural gas to take place of some present energy in Guizhou province.