土地承载力的规定和人口与环境的间断平衡

The Rule on Land Carrying Capacity and the Discontinuous Balance of Population and Environment

按土地承载力的定义,在技术进步的情况下,土地承载力的增长、人口与环境的平衡是持续的;而土地承载力的阈值性和与之反向关联的生态/环境稳定性的下降,则不可避免地将持续性变为间断性。生态/环境稳定性与土地承载力的反向关联既是土地承载力关于稳定性规定——不对土地资源造成不可逆负面影响的内在逻辑推论,又是生态系统发育的理论必然、低稳定性人类系统扩大的历史必然和支持因子彼长此消的物质性必然,且为以土地休养生息为条件的农业文明的兴衰更替史所佐证。工业革命以来,化石能源、地质矿藏的大规模利用在荫蔽和克服间断性的同时,也把人类带到生态/环境超临界态的极度不稳定域。节制欲望、减少人口是保证生态/环境稳定性,也即将土地承载力控制在对临界态的不超越以避免人口与环境平衡再度间断的根本途径。

Based on the definition of sustainability, stability, dynamism and balance, and in the conditions of technological advance and increased investment, an increase in land carrying capacity and the balance of population and environment should remain durative.. However, a decrease in the threshold value of land carrying capacity and the eco-/environmental stability, the correlation of which is negative, will inevitably discontinue the increase in land carrying capacity, and turn the sustained balance of population and environment to a discontinuous balance. The negative correlation between the eco-/environmental stability and land carrying capacity is the logical deduction regarding the rule on stability of land carrying capacity （that is to produce no irreversible influence on the land）, and the theoretical inevitability of coo-environmental system growth （that is a decrease in systematic output and an increase in stability from infancy to maturity）. In addition, it is the historical inevitability of low-stable human eco-systematic expansion and the reverse eco-systematic succession of human activity, and the physical inevitability of the conflicted sustaining factors under the conditions of limited resource distribution. These have been confirmed by the few-thousand-year agricultural civilization. Since the Industrial Revolution, the wide exploitation of fossil energy and mineral resources has brought man an extremely unstable area of eco-/environmental supercriticality. The limit of unrenewable resources and the high instability caused by the supercriticality of land carrying capacity such as the butterfly effect, the labyrinth effect or the network effect, will indicate the inevitable re-appearance of a discontinuous balance of population and environment. To avoid the disastrous outcome of the said discontinuous balance, it is necessary to revise the definition of land carrying capacity. In other words, it should be re-defined as ＂the stability of sustainable use of land and eco-/environment ＂, instead of ＂the stability of producing no irreversible influence on the land ＂. Accordingly, the threshold value should be changed to the sub-threshold value. Therefore, a ＂small population ＂ within supercriticality will become the only or ultimate way to guarantee the sustained balance of population and environment.