货币错配与全球失衡

Currency Mismatch and Global Imbalances

经常项目均衡可视作前瞻性的投资者储蓄与投资最优决策的结果。经常项目大幅的逆差或顺差本身并不必然意味着不稳定,但是,如果国际投资者不再愿意在其投资组合中继续增加逆差国的风险暴露,则该国的储蓄与投资行为就必须调整,使其经常项目头寸与可得融资相一致。分析表明,现存的货币错配与全球失衡难以持续,最终需进行有序调整。

Current account equilibrium can be seen as optimum outcome of forward-looking investors＇ decision about their saving and investment. The existence of significant current account deficits and surpluses does not by itself imply the threat of instability. However, if international investors resist a continued buildup in country exposure in their portfolios, savings and investment behavior have to adjust to bring current account positions back in line with available financing. Analysis shows the unsustainable links between currency mismatch and external imbalance, which need orderly adjustment, ultimately.