基于概率三角模糊数的水资源多属性决策方法研究

Research of multi-attribute decisions-making method of water resources based on probability triangle fuzzy number

水资源优化配置的决策方案的许多指标和权重往往是定性的,因此如何较合理的处理这些指标和权重是解决优化配置的关键所在。针对定性指标和精确指标混合情况下的水资源多属性决策问题,引入三角模糊数相互比较的可能度概念及模糊比率刻度概念,使定性指标及权重在决策中以三角模糊数形式的规范表示,研究各决策指标在非统一概率分布下的三角模糊数决策矩阵的综合评价方法,使决策评价结果更加合理,切合实际。实例计算表明水资源多属性决策方法简单可行,得到的最优方案与专家们对方案的倾向性意见一致。

Many indexes and weights of the decision making in the water resources optimal distribution are qualitative. Therefore how to process these indexes and weights reasonably is the key to solve this kind of questions. In view of multi-attribute decisions-making question of water resources in the mix situation both of quantitative and precise indexes, this paper introduced the possibility concept by which different triangle fuzzy numbers can be mutually compared and the concept of fuzzy ratio scale. Let the represent quantitative indexes and the weights can be regularly expressed by the triangle fuzzy numbers in the decision-making. Through the research of synthesis appraisal method of the triangle fuzzy number decision-making matrix, under the deci- sional indexes was not unified probability distributions, this paper made the decision-making valuation results more reasonable and fitting the reality. The example calculation indicated that decision-making method in this paper was simple and feasible, the optimal decision scheme obtained was complety suitable to the ideas of the experts.