基于AEZ模型的我国农区小麦生产潜力分析

Analyses of wheat yield potential by AEZ model on the basis of Chinese farming system zonation.

根据联合国粮农组织（FAO）和国际应用系统分析研究所（IIASA）基于中国1961～1997年的统计资料（经多方校正）共同开发的AEZ模型，运用GIS平台计算了中国41个农作制亚区的小麦生产潜力，并指出了单产最高潜力分布区域。研究结果表明，我国小麦的最高产量潜力约为目前产量的2～3倍。这对我国小麦高产育种及栽培具有重要意义。

Wheat yield potentials in 41 Chinese farming system sub-zones were calculated on the bases of AEZ model developed by FAO and IIASA in accordance with verified statistical data （1961 to 1997）on China. The distribution of maximum wheat yield potential was extrapolated on Chinese GIS map. Results show that maximum yield potential of wheat can be 2-3 folds its present levels, an invaluable discovery for high wheat yield breeding and cultivation in China.