三峡—丹江口及邻区区域地壳稳定性的模糊数学评价

QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT ON THE CRUST STABILITY IN THE SANXIA (THREE GORGES)—DANJIANGKOU REGION AND ITS ADJACENT AREA BY FUZZY MATHEMATICAL METHOD

三峡一丹江口及邻区是南水北调中线补水工程线路的所在区域。以构造稳定性评价为主,辅以地面稳定性评价。选择地质、地震、活动断裂、地壳形变、地质灾害等共16个指标因素,通过专家咨询、打分,并最终综合集成确定了各指标因素的权重大小,运用模糊数学方法对该研究区进行了区域地壳稳定性评价。评价结果表明,该研究区共划分出相对较不稳定区3个、相对较稳定区15个、相对稳定区8个,未出现不稳定区。并对模糊数学方法进行了有意义的探讨,指出因素及其权重的决定对整个评价结果的影响至关重要,同时数据的准备及数据的二次分析提高对整个评价结果的可信度提供了重要保证,对今后的中线补水工程线路的选择提供了一定的指导和进一步论证的基础。

The Sanxia （Three gorges）-Danjiangkou Region and its adjacent Area are,in the area of the middle line for diverting the Yangtze River to the Han River in the South-to-North Water Transfer Project, Fuzzy mathematical method （FMM） was applied in the quantitative assessment of the crust stability of the region,with the priority given to structure stability. The ground stability was also considered. 16 indexes such as geological and earth-quake activity fault, crust deformation,geological disaster were selected. The power value for each index was confirmed through expert system in order to ensure the rationality of the assessment. It is revealed that the region has 3 sections of relatively less instability, 15 sections of relatively hypo-stability,8 sections of relative stability. Meanwhile,the reliability and limit of the mathematical method were also discussed in this paper. It is shown that the selection of the indexes and their power value are very important for the results and the results obtained at present is of significance for future management of the Three Gorges Project, and will be of reference values for selecting the waterline for diverting the Yangtze River to the Han River.