世界棉花主产国近50年气候变化特征的分析

Features of Climate Change of Major Cotton Countries in the World in Recent 50 Years

根据世界4个棉花主产国（区）美国、印度、巴基斯坦和前苏联中亚国家棉花分布及种植概况,选取相应的代表气象站,对各产棉国或其主要棉区1951~2000年的年平均气温、年降水量进行年代际和近10年气候变化的分析。以期对新疆科学、合理地布局棉花生产区和指导棉花种植生产提供一定的参考。分析结果表明：（1）年平均气温世界4个主产棉国（区）均表现出1990年代最高,1960年代是一个冷期;（2）1990年代印度棉区、美国东部棉区降水正常偏多,而巴基斯坦棉区和美国西部棉区则表现出降水显著偏少;（3）世界4个主产棉国（区）近10年年平均气温均有增暖的趋势,尤其1998年以后,这种趋势表现得更为显著;（4）各国和不同的植棉区近10年降水量的变化趋势表现不一致气候变化特征。

According to cotton distribution and production in the United States, India, Pakistan and the Middle - Asia of old Russia, the representative meteorological stations were chosen in every cotton country. Based on the month climatic data of these four countries from 1951 to 2000, the climate features of annual mean air temperature and annual precipitation were analyzed. These results would provide some advice for scientific and reasonable distribute cotton production region in Xinjiang. The results shows： （1 ）The annual mean air temperature in these four countries were the highest in the 1990 s and cold period in the 1960 s; （2）Annual precipitation in the 1990 s was more than that in normal years in India and cotton regicon in the east of the United States , and was lower than that in normal years in Pakistan and in the west of the United States ; （3 ）Annual mean air temperature has trends to become warm in recent ten years in these countries, especially in 1998; （4）The change trends of annual precipitation was not uniform in recent ten years in these countries.