中国经济增长和能源消费的动态特征

Dynamics of Economic Growth and Energy Consumption in China

本文运用基于向量自回归（VAR）模型的广义预测误差方差分解和广义脉冲响应分析方法，在资本、劳动和能源三要素单部门新古典生产函数的框架内，以中国1988～2005年期间的能源消费和经济增长数据为样本，考察了二者之间的动态特征。结果显示：一方面，在短期，经济增长对能源消费的影响不十分显著，而在长期，除了资本增长外，经济增长是能源消费增长的重要因素，短期和长期的贡献度分别为4．36％和14．92％；另一方面，能源消费是仅次于资本的第二生产要素，短期和长期的贡献度分别为6．98％和44．19％，生产函数中投入要素重要性的排序从高到低依次为资本、能源和劳动力。能源消费增长的冲击对经济增长有正的影响作用，在第五年达到最大；反过来，经济增长的冲击对能源消费增长也有稳定的正向影响。中国的经济增长和能源消费具有内生且相互联系的特征，除此之外，还发现在前3年能源和劳动存在替代关系，而与资本是互补的。最后，指出了中国在能源约束下实现经济可持续发展所面临的挑战和机遇并提出了建议。

By utilizing generalized forecasting error variance decomposition analysis and generalized impulse analyses which are based on VAR model, i.e., Vector Autoregressive Model, this paper investigates the dynamic interactions between economic growth and energy consumption. Empirical analysis is conducted by using the time series data during the period 1988 ~ 2005 in china. The analysis is conducted under the framework of multi-variables product function, which embodies capital, labor and energy. The empirical results of generalized forecasting error variance decomposition analysis suggest that economic growth does not notably affect energy consumption in the short run. Whereas the former is the key factor of the energy consumption growth in the long run, and the contribution degrees are 4.36 % and 14.92% respectively. Energy consumption is the second essential input factor, which is only next to capital and more important than labor input, and the contribution degrees are 6.98 % and 44.19 % in the short run and long run respectively. As for the importance among the inputs, capital is ranked in the first place, followed by energy and labor. Capital is still the significant factor of economic growth in China. The empirical results of generalized impulse response analysis suggest that the impulse stock to energy consumption has positive effect on economic growth, which reaches the maximum in the fifth year, and the latter also has positive and stable effect on the former. All above empirical results indicate that economic growth and energy consumption growth are endogenous and correlated in China. Besides, we found that energy is substituted by labor in the first three years, but complemented by capital. At last, some problems and prospects facing China are pointed out. At the same time, some scientific and useful suggestions are also made for China to realize sustainable economic growth under the condition of energy restriction. We cannot ignore the fact that there are a lot of high energy consumption and high pollution industrial activities transferred into China by multinationals in the early and mid periods of China＇ s industrialization. China＇s energy consumption and economic growth earlier demonstrated the endogenous and inter-linkages characteristics. The energy shortage or abundance is relative to certain industrial stage and technological trails. Therefore, optimizing the industrial and energy consumption structure, improving energy efficiency and exploring new technology to achieve breakthroughs in the energy industry will be conducive to China＇ s sustainable economic development. Now the technical and economic conditions from promoting the industrialization process in China are different from the developed countries, which have achieved the industrialization in the 19th century or the first half of the 20th century. Strengthening the awareness of energy crisis in the whole nation and actively exploring technical path of breakthrough of energy constraints on the China＇s economic growth are very important.