古气候研究中气候模式的发展与应用

The Development and Application of Climate Model in Paleoclimate Simulation

气候模拟是利用模式研究气候演变的学科。根据气候研究的实际需要,产生和发展了大批模式,主要包括大气环流模式(GCMs)、地球系统模式(EMICs)和简单气候模式。3类模式在模拟的时-空尺度和能力上表现出各自的特点,适用的研究领域也有一些差异。运用上述模式分析过去气候变化原因及机理、进一步认识气候系统以及气候政策的制定都发挥了重大作用。各类气候模式在模拟应用过程中都有相应的局限性,应该根据实际应用情况选择合适的模式进行研究应用。

Climate simulation is to study climate change with climate models. According to the practical requirement of research climate change, many climate models including generally the General Circulation Models （ GCMs）, Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity （EMICs） and simple climate models （SDMs, RCMs, etc. ） are developed. Although there are some differences between different models in simulating the spatiotemporal scale of paleoclimate, modeling capability and suitable research fields of climate change, these models have been extensively applied to analyze the causes and mechanism of climate change, understand the climate systems and formulate the climate policies. These models have their own limitation when they are applied to simulate climate change. In order to make the simulated results be close to the recorded data of climate change, the suitable model or models should be used in simulating climate change. It is considered that the climate simulation study will be significantly improved along with the improvement of computer hardware, simulation models, calculation methods and deep understanding to climate systems.