灰色Markov方程建立及其在小麦单产预测中的应用

Establishment of Grey-Markov Model and It's Application in Forecasting Wheat Yield

灰色预测和马尔柯夫链预测方法都可用于时序问题的预测,在预报中两种方法各有局限性,单独使用预测准确率都不高,特别是对时序波动较大的预测,二者的局限性表现更为明显[1]。针对灰色预测方程与Markov方程的优缺点进行评述,并对两种方程进行组合建立灰色Markov预测方程,提高预测结果的准确性,并给出实例。

Both of Grey predication and Markov predication may be used for the predication in time order. But there were limitations of these two models in application, especially predicting datum which change in time order were big. The paper comment on the two predication models, and establishing the Grey - Markov predication model, so veracity of predication will be improved.