关于我国金融发展对经济增长贡献的实证分析

Empical Analysis on Financial Development Influencing Economic Growth

采用2000年第一季度到2006年第四季度的数据,运用Johansen协整检验法与VEC模型,在定性和定量的基础上,分析了现阶段我国金融发展与经济增长之间长期和短期的动态关系,以及金融发展对经济增长的影响程度。结果表明:虽然银行部门与股票市场在长期都对经济增长有正的影响,但股票市场对经济增长的贡献大于银行部门对经济增长的贡献,因此扩大股票市场在中国金融体系中的作用将对中国经济的发展具有重大的意义。

This paper uses quarterly dada of 2000 to 2006, employs Jonansen maximum likelihood approach to examine： the long and short term relationship between financial development and economic growth in China, how financial development influence economic growth, basing on qualitative and quantitative analysis. The results indi- cate that banking and stock market development have a positive effect on economic growth, and the latter is more important. Stock market plays a significant role in accelerating our economic development.