基于结构可靠度理论的高拱坝失效概率研究

Research on Failure Probability of High Arch Dam Based on Structural Reliability Theory

简述了高拱坝安全评价中可靠度与失效概率研究的现状及存在问题;分析了高拱坝的主要失效模式,建立了高拱坝系统失效的故障树模型;研究了高拱坝失效相关主要随机变量的分布规律及特征值计算方法;探索应用JC法计算高拱坝单个失效模式的失效概率;研究了具有多个失效模式的高拱坝系统失效概率的计算方法;计算了某一高拱坝的失效概率。

A brief review is given for the present status as well as the existing problem in the study on the reliability and failure probability in the safety evaluation of the high arc dam with the analysis of the major failure mode. A fault tree model of the high arc dam system is established. The distribution regularities as well as the eigenvalue calculation method for the major random variables relevant to the high arc failure are investigated. An attempt is made to apply the JC method to the calculation of the failure probability with the single failure model of the high arc dam. The method for calculating the failure probability of the high arc dam system with multiple failure models is studied. The failure probability of a high arc dam is given.