应用正态概率模型预测油田含水率变化规律

Using Normal Probability Model to Forecast Performance of Water Cut in Waterflood Oilfield

应用正态概率模型可以方便地确定水驱动态变化、描述水驱特征参数,这就使得预测油田含水率、采收率、评价开发措施变得比较简便而实用。油田开发实践表明,当油田进入中含水期后,不论是S型、凸型,还是凹型水驱特征曲线都可以应用正态概率模型进行预测。

Using normal probability model is more simple and efficient to determine performance and eharacteristic parameter of waterflood oilfield, so it is feasible and practicable to forecast water cut and oil recovery of wateffood oilfield and evaluate its development measures. The comparison and application show that the normal probability model can be applied to forecasting the performance of water cut when the oilfield enters into medium water cut stage for either S-type, convex-type or concave-type curves.