中国生态足迹与经济增长的协整、误差修正模型及预测

A Co-integration Analysis and an Error-Correction Model for Ecological Footprint and Economy Growth in China

综合应用生态足迹、协整理论及误差修正模型，分析了我国资源消耗与经济增长之间的关系。计算了中国1961～2001年的生态足迹及能源足迹、耕地足迹、草地足迹、林地足迹、建筑足迹、水域足迹。在此基础上，详细研究了GDP与各种生态足迹之间的长期均衡关系。研究结果表明GDP分别与总生态足迹、耕地足迹、能源足迹之间存在协整关系，而GDP与草地足迹、林地足迹、建筑足迹、水域足迹不存在协整关系，并建立了GDP与总生态足迹、耕地足迹、能源足迹之间的误差修正模型，应用模型分析发现能源足迹是我国经济持续增长的瓶颈；应用本文所建立的误差修正模型，可以预测我国生态足迹、能源足迹、耕地足迹的变化趋势，以模型（4）为例，预测了2006-2010年我国生态足迹及人均足迹，二者均呈现增长趋势，人均生态赤字较严重。

By using the theories of the ecological footprint, co-integration, an Error-Correction Model, the relationships between resource consumption and economy development were analyzed. The ecological footprint, energy, arable land, pasture, forest, water area and residential area footprints have been calculated from 1961 to 2001 in this paper. The relationships between China＇s GDP and the ecological footprints were researched in detail. The results show that the GDP and the ecological footprint, energy footprint, arable land footprint exist co-integration relationship. On the other hand, the GDP and pasture, forest, water,residential area footprints have no co-integration relationship. On the basis of above analysis, the Error Correction Models on LGDP-LZ, LGDP-LHZ, LGDP-LGZ were given. The conclusion is that energy footprint is the key factor to economy growth. We can forecast the ecological, energy, arable land footprint by the Error Correction Model in the paper. For an example, we forecast the ecological footprint and EF per capita in China from 2006 to 2010 using the model （4）, which shows the both are increasing and an ecological deficit：of per capita is high.