滇西纵谷齐氏姬鼠及大绒鼠鼠疫疫源地最佳监测时期研究

The most favorable time for investigating wild rodents plague foci in Jianchuan, Yunnan

目的 研究滇西纵谷齐氏姬鼠、大绒鼠鼠疫疫源地的最佳监测时期。方法 应用圆形分布的统计方法对滇西纵谷齐氏姬鼠、大绒鼠鼠疫疫源地16年疫情资料进行分析。结果 圆形分布平均角计算和检验假设表明，滇西纵谷齐氏姬鼠、大绒鼠鼠疫疫源地鼠疫存在一定的季节高峰（r=0．4777，a=88．2825，s=69．6456，Z=1379，P〈0．001），鼠体蚤检菌阳性75％可信区间分布于1月上旬至6月中旬；鼠体蚤检菌阳性95％可信区间分布在11月中旬至次年7月中旬。结论 在滇西纵谷齐氏姬鼠、大绒鼠鼠疫疫源地内，11月中旬至次年7月为最佳监测时期。

Objective To determine the best time to investigate wild rodents plague foci in Jianchuan, Yunnan. Methods The data of plague epidemic situation in the past sixteen years in wild rodents plague foci in Jianchuan were retrospectively analyzed applying the circular distribution method. Results Average angular calculation and test-hypothesis from circular distribution method, r = 0.4777, 0l = 88.2825, s = 69.6456, Z = 1379, P 〈 0.001, a seasonal peak of plague in wild rodents plague foci in Jianchuan was proved. The positive flea could be found between the first ten-day of January and the middle ten days of June in a 75% confidence interval, also between the middle ten days of November and the middle ten days of July on the following year in a 95% confidence interval. Conclusions The best time to investigate wild rodents plague foci in Jianchuan is considered to be between the middle ten days of November through the middle ten days of July of the following year.