关于我国居民储蓄高低问题的研究

Whether the Residents Saving is High or Low in China

居民储蓄高低的判断是备受关注同时也是颇有争议的问题，纯理论分析很难给出一个明确的答案，但提供了实证研究的逻辑和思路。通过对1985-2004年我国居民储蓄的估算发现，居民储蓄率并不和居民储蓄额一样呈明显上升趋势，但二者均显著不是我国经济增长的Granger原因。因此，现阶段我国居民储蓄是偏高的，基本政策导向应该是提高居民储蓄一投资转化效率和适当降低居民储蓄的有效结合。

The theme of whether the residents saving is high or low in our country is very notable and disputable, and it is difficult to draw an explicit judgment by pure theoretical analysis, but＇the theories provides us the logic and illumination for the empirical study. After the estimation and empirical analysis of the residents saving from 1985 to 2004 in our county, we found that the residents saving-rate didn＇t increase evidently as same as its quantity, but neither the rate nor the quantity is a Granger cause for our economic growth. So we deem that the residents saving is a little high in present stage, and the basic economic policy should be the suitable combination of both enhancing the efficiency of saving-investment transformation and decreasing the residents saving appropriately.