汇率变动对工资和就业结构影响的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis on the Influences of the Exchange Rate Fluctuation on the Average Incomes and the Employment Structures

本文由Frenkel两部门理论模型,采用IMF提供的人民币对美元实际汇率数据,通过实证分析发现,实际汇率升值会显著减少贸易部门就业,即人民币升值使贸易部门就业人数显著减少,非贸易部门第二产业工人就业人数会增加,对第三产业工人就业影响不大,但就业工人实际工资水平都会有所提高。所以本文的结论是,人民币升值能提升中低阶层福利水平,支持人民币升值。

This articli is based on Frenkel's resource allocation model.With the data of real effective exchange rate between RMB and US dollar offered by IMF,we conduct cointegration test on the RMB real exchange rate against the employment and wages of China's tradable sector and non-tradable sector including Secondary industry and Tertiary industry.The result shows that the appreciation of the real exchange rate will cut down the employment of the tradable sector while enhance the employment of Secondary industry in the non-tradable sector,but its influence on employment of the Tertiary industry is ambiguous.However,real wages in all the sectors will be lifted by the appreciation.In conclusion,the appreciation of the RMB can increase the welfare of the people in middle and lower level of the society,so that we support the appreciation.