数值降水预报结果的并集集成方法及其试验研究

Union Set Integration Method of Numerical Precipitation Forecast and Experimental Study on it

介绍了并集集成方法的基本原理和使用范围。在此基础上,利用2003～2005年T213、HLAFS、MAPS的降水预报资料,在孝感站进行了降水集成预报试验。结果表明:并集集合的预报能力比单个成员明显增强,集成预报效果总体上比任何单一成员的预报效果好,订正权重计算集成预报的TS综合评分比T213、HLAFS、MAPS提高了0.054、0.089、0.115,且预报性能较为稳定,可为降水预报提供客观依据。

The basic principles and scope of use of Union Set Integration Method are introduced in this paper. On this basis, the ensemble forecast experiments using T213, HLAFS, MAPS precipitation forecast data at Xiaogan station from 2003 to 2005 are conducted. The results show that forecasting capability of Union Set Integration Method is markedly enhanced than the any individual member. Integrated Forecast result is overall better than any single member of the forecast. Integrated Composite score TS calculated by the revised weights increased 0.054, 0.089, 0.115 than the T213, HLAFS, MAPS forecasting, and the forecasts are so stable and remarkably improved that it can provide objective basis for precipitation forecast.