高等教育投资回报率估算——基于西部三个城市的微观数据

Estimation on the Return of Higher Education——Evidence from three Western Cities in China

本文基于中国西部三个城市,7949个住户的微观数据,利用内生的处理效应模型测算了城市家庭20—35岁青年的高等教育投资回报率。经验研究的结果显示:1.现阶段青年人的高等教育投资内部报酬率大致在7%左右;按照30年工作时间计算的收入增加现值大约在8万元上下,高等教育使得月收入期望值平均增加80%。高等教育还能够使青年就业的可能性增加8%左右;2.从性别的视角观察,高等教育对于女性的回报率高于男性,女青年内部报酬率大约在8.3%(男青年7.6%);就业概率增加15.9%(男青年4%),每月工资期望值增加122%(男青年67.5%);3.如果高等教育的全部花费增加到平均6万元,则从单纯的现金流意义上说,高等教育没有增加收入的价值了。

Using the data of 3394 households in three cities of western region in China, this paper analyses the investment return rate of higher education of 20-35 years old in urban households. The empirical findings show that in current stage the IRR of higher education is about 7 % and the present value for increased income is about 80000 Yuan for 30 working years. The higher education could augment the income per month by 80% and increase the probability of employment by 8%. Compared with the young man, the return rate of young woman is higher in IRR, and this trend is the same to probability of employment and expected income. If the total cost of higher education is 60000 Yuan, the choice of entering university is unadvisable for the youth from the viewpoint of cash flow.