也谈新保守主义对布什政府外交政策的影响

The Influence of Neo-Conservatism on Bush Administration's Foreign Policies

新保守主义思潮兴起于20世纪60年代末70年代初,对布什政府第一任期的外交政策产生了深刻影响,主要体现在"9.11"事件后的中东政策、美欧关系和亚太政策三个方面。其中最为深远的影响是推动了布什政府一系列中东政策的制定,包括做出发动伊拉克战争、推行"大中东民主计划"、强硬态度处理伊朗核问题等决策。然而,新保守主义有着"过分的现实主义"和"过分的理想主义",面临着理论本身存在的缺陷、实际操作中的问题、与美国传统政治思想格格不入、过于关注以色列利益等诸多挑战,其外交政策推行的阻力日益增加,因而布什总统在第二任期内开始逐渐放弃具有强烈进攻性的"布什主义",尝试实现新保守主义的"软着陆"。然而,对于新保守主义在美国政界最终究竟是"去"是"留",还要看中东局势的发展,以及2008年美国总统大选中共和、民主两党角逐的结果。

Neo-conservatism, based on the political philosophy of Natural Right Theory by leo Slxauss, resurrected in late 1960s and early 1970s. It has exerted a profound influence on Bush administration＇s foreign policies during its first term, especially after the ＂9·11＂ terrorist attack, mainly in the US-EU relations, the Asia-Pacific area, and the Middle East. Bush administration＇s foreign policy in the Middle East is best embodied by the war against Iraq, the Great Middle East Initiative, and the strong position on Iranian Nuclear Issue. The neo-conservatism, a combination of both ＂excessive realism＂ and ＂excessive idealism＂, is, however, facing a lot of challenges, such as the inherent defaults of the theory itself, operational problems, the disaccord with traditional American political thoughts, and too much concern for Israel. It is therefore increasingly difficult to promote neo-conservative foreign policies, and President Bush is thus gradually abandoning the aggressive ＂Bush Doctrine＂, trying to ＂soft-land＂ neo-conservatism in his second term instead. Nevertheless, whether neo-conservatism can continue to flourish in the US politics or not depends on the situation in the Middle East, and the result of the competition between Republicans and Democrats in the 2008 Presidential campaign.